It looks like we may be in for another La Nina heading into the end of the year, which could mean a repeat of weather patterns of 2010/11. Although, we will have to wait and see as the Enso index is not showing as dramatic as last year just yet.
The Australian Bom is still indicating a neutral Enso, but the SST map sure looks like an La Nina to me. Lots of cool water in the central pacific. Get ready for some more rain this summer in Oz.
When the index heads south of -0.5 we are in “La Nina” territory. As can be seen in the below graph, we have just crossed the line.
Rainfall is always above average in La Nina years, so make sure you have your raincoat and wellie’s handy.