Climate models used by the IPCC, WMO, and the Bom (Australian Bureau of Meteorology)

Is this the climate model they use at the IPCC? Would explain a lot!

etc, are the basis for all the CAGW hype the world over.  Yet time and time again they are shown to be not very accurate for forecasting even seasonal weather events, let alone longer term and more highly complex climatic changes.

The Australian Bom predicted a neutral Enso this year leading into 2012 and heading back towards a possible El Niño, only two months ago.   La Niña conditions give Australia cooler conditions and a lot more rain. A lot more rain! Remember all the floods earlier this year especially in Queensland?

Bom Enso prediction Oct 2011

Two months on, and the picture has changed dramatically. The following graph is the actual results to Dec 1st 2011 and their current forecast for the next 9 months.

Note : La Niña conditions are defined as the sea surface temperature below minus 0.8 degree C,  and El Niño is temperatures above positive 0.8 degree C.  .

Enso actual (to Nov) and forecast for next 9 months

Here they are side by side for a better comparison.

Bom’s climate models seem to have changed dramatically in just 2 months?

So, it appears the forecast indicated a neutral/warming trend instead of a cooling one(Ie La Niña), and again they have repeated this for the current forecast by stating that the current La Niña will head back into neutral territory in the new year.  These are the same type of climate models that have predicted 2 to 6 degrees of global warming increase on pre industrial levels by now, when in fact there has been  about 0.7 degree C  increase over the last 100 years or so.

How much faith can we have in the current forecast? I would suggest 50/50 at best.  If we end up having a repeat of last year we will have floods in 3 states with thousands of people totally unprepared, displaced or killed.  Will the Bom take the rap for the dodgy forecasting?

Could it be that the Bom is influenced politically by the IPCC and/or the Australian government.  Would they really make these forecasts to fit with the AGW agenda?  Or perhaps accurate seasonal weather forecasting is still just beyond the realms of possibility.  I hope  the Bom will not have to soon stop giving out forecasts like the British MET office, after they themselves got their winter forecasts disastrously wrong, two years running (towing the IPCC “line”).

I would suggest everyone living in the eastern states to prepare for the worst but hope for the best, because it appears the Bom have little idea about what is about to happen.

JTF

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