Three questions that everyone should ask themselves about man made global warming (Anthropogenic Global Warming).

1. Is it true that the earth is warming?

2. Are we the primary cause of the warming?

3. Why should we care?

Although many find this topic either boring or feel that their contribution is negligible, it is a very important issue that impacts almost everyone in the world.  Local, state and national governments as well as international bodies are implementing policy derived from ideas based around AGW,  and they are having a profound effect on people all around the world.   A whole lot of money is being spent in response to the AGW theory.  Should we be supporting these programs implemented because of global warming?

1.  Is it true that the earth is warming?

Well that depends on when you make your start point.  For more than 30 years now, climate scientists have been warning us of the dangers of releasing carbon dioxide into the atmosphere which will cause the earth to heat up, increase droughts, melt the ice sheets raising the sea levels, and make earth just like Venus etc.

Here are just a few samples of the recorded and proxy temperatures of the earth over different time scales. I must state up front that it is not really possible to actually record the temperature of the earth at any given time, given the extensive area and the vast volume of the atmosphere and of the oceans.  However these graphs at least show the relative changes in the atmospheric temperature.

Global Temperatures last 14 years

And a lot lot longer

It appears from the instrumental records that the earth generally has warmed in recent times, especially since the depths of the Little Ice Age.  But to say that the earth has warmed over longer periods, you would have to be a little delusional.  The last 14 years show a cooling trend, and the earth has certainly been warmer at so many times in the past 10,000 years, and, over much longer geological times.

Composition of the atmosphere (does not include water vapour which is typically 0.4%)

2.  Are we the primary cause of the warming.

Warming of the atmosphere has been going on for more than 200 years since the depths of the Little Ice Age.  Man made C02 production ramped up dramatically from the 1940’s, but is C02 actually dangerous?

C02 accounts for just 0.04 %  of the atmosphere (cant even see that amount on a pie graph). The sources that C02 come from are, the oceans when they warm up, volcanoes, plants at night, animals, burning of fossil fuels, and weathered rock etc.

Oh, just one question though.  How do we actually measure all of the Co2 expelled from all of these sources?  Ummm. Well we don’t!  Yes, that is correct, C02 is not measured from all of these sources. The amounts are calculated from known “estimates” from individual sources. Even our industrial production of C02 is calculated and not measured.  A good example of how unknown is the natural production of C02, is from volcanoes.  The contribution of C02 from volcanoes is based on all of the known active ones.  The problem here is that we do not know how many sub oceanic volcanoes there actually are.  A 2007 study has estimated there is over three million of volcanoes beneath the oceans.  Many more than currently calculated (guessed?). So if we can not measure it, there is no way to accurately ascertain whether the human contribution is enough to make any difference.

Carbon dioxide apparently not well mixed.

Thirdly,  much of the evidence that C02 is causing any

Theory does not match reality.

warming is just not there. C02 is supposed to be well mixed in the atmosphere to have a warming effect, and most of the Co2 was supposed to be coming from industrialized countries.  Both of these things appear not to be happening.  If the AGW hypothesis was true there was supposed to be a “hot” spot in the mid troposphere. Ie an expanded pocket of warmer air.   Also, the world temperature was supposed to be still increasing to a non returnable  “tipping” point”.  None of these appear to have happened. 

The much celebrated  “greenhouse effect” is possibly not real, and atmospheric C02 most likely does not have the warming effect that our IPCC friends tout that it does.   There does not even seem to be a consensus among the scientists.

 I saw this video of Richard Feynman recently about the Scientific method and should be remembered when assessing any scientific theory.

You actually only need one piece of evidence to prove a theory wrong. We appear to have more than one here to say the current AGW theory is wrong, or at least not yet substantiated. See “further reading” for more evidence.   This is probably why it’s proponents changed it’s name to “Climate Change” and then “Climate disruption”, and now  “clean energy future” to disconnect it’s apparent connection to warming, while still arguing abatement programs etc to stop the “warming”.

3. Why should we care?

Billions of dollars are being spent (wasted?) on C02 abatement programs, renewable energy subsidies, desalination plants, “green” education programs, carbon taxes, carbon trading, and UN payments and who knows what else.  If the AGW theory is incorrect, then this is just money blowing in the wind.  Speaking of wind. Wind and Solar energy systems are one such response to AGW theory.  These systems will never be competitive with coal, gas, or nuclear.  State and federal governments in Australia support these programs with billions of dollars.  This money could quite easily be used for health, education, roads, or tax cuts, both business and personal.   This money will do nothing to change the climate. This money will do nothing to secure our energy supply.

Here in Australia and elsewhere in the world it will however, raise energy costs and raise water rates.   It will increase the cost of almost everything that relies on energy or water, which is pretty much everything.  Electricity prices have increased in most states of Australia massive amounts in recent years, with the worst  (South Australia) almost doubling in five years (97% increase from 2007).    This will decrease the competitiveness of Australian companies doing business locally and  internationally.  This will no doubt reduce our standard of living, put pressure on lower income families, and help put some businesses, out of business.  There are no pluses in any of these programs, only costs.

The reasons we are in this predicament are varied, but the reason that it is perpetuated is that many climate scientists end up being complicit in this AGW charade by receiving government grants based on the existence of the AGW theory.  No theory = no government grants.  Financial and career implications come into play if these same scientists question the reliability of the AGW theory.   They would probably be out of a job.  As long as they continue the meme, the dollars and their career’s keep rolling on.  Our own CSIRO and Bom are two such organisations which currently support the AGW theory, and they both receive massive financial support for research into climatology.  Their proof is usually based on computer models.  The same ones used by the Met office in England, which got two of their winter forecasts spectacularly wrong.  Our own Bom actually forecast an El Nino for 2011/12, which would have resulted in warm dry weather generally for Australia, however, as most in Australia would know, we had a La Nina, which resulted in heavy rain and massive floods causing property damage and deaths.

The seriousness of this can not be understated.  We have been lied to, and the politicians (on both sides and with the support of the AGW scientists) are still lying to us. They treat us like children, telling us what is best.   Anyone who speaks out publicly against global warming is ridiculed as being a “denier” or right wing extremist, but the truth is a difficult thing to hide these days.    The only question is how much damage the pollies will have done to us and our economy while we remain quiet or apathetic to the issue.  The sooner we tell our MP’s we are not accepting any policy that has come about because of global warming,  the sooner we can actually focus on real problems with real consequences.  Do not let our national leaders squander the riches of Australia, and definitely do not let them impose laws and taxes which limit our freedom and our prosperity.

When the ruling class breaks the trust of it’s people, revolutions occur and sometimes whole civilisations end.

Is this what you want for Australia?

In a nutshell.

The earth has warmed a little, but not over the last 14 years, and not at all over much longer time scales.   There is little correlation (let alone proof) that C02 causes the earth to warm, and finally our governments are wasting billions of our dollars to fix a problem that most likely does not exist.

So, if you care about truth and freedom. If you care about your family, and your livelihood.  If you care about the life you currently live in this great world of ours, or even if you care about helping others less fortunate, you should not support any organisation that supports the AGW theory or climate change, subsidies or abatement.  All of these programs soak up funds that could do real good for people in need in Australia and the world.     What you should do, is write your local MP, state and federal to state your opposition to any policy that has come about because of climate change, or what ever they call it now.

A bit more reading:

97% of world scientists

The earth is’nt really warming that much

The IPCC admits it got it wrong

C02 lags temperature

No correlation

Our very own Australian scientist

JTF

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