Category: Energy


Engineers could solve the problem though. JoNova has this Gem of an article.

JoNova $1400 electricity 2018

See JoNova for the full story

NEM report

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IMG_0585“The wind and the sun are free don’t you know!”

“If we want a clean and bright future for our kids, coal needs to go, and renewable energy is the only answer, stop thinking about money and start thinking common sense!”

Just two examples from ill informed and or delusional feel good “saviours of the world”.

So, before you go commenting on why and how we should “save the world” with renewables, you should do sufficient reading to understand at least the basic principles of the following;

Energy density, power density, electrical production costs, distribution infrastructure, capacity factors, Australian energy history, frequency regulation, synchronous generation, and energy subsidies (obvious and indirect).

A fair bit of reading, I know, but without understanding all of these things, your comment will likely come from a position of ignorance, or worse, regurgitated idealist propaganda (predominantly from the Greens/Labor). Or, from all of those lovely wholesome generous people selling the ideal of a “Carbon free world”.  “Free energy from the sun” the lovely solar people say, and it will only cost “this much”, and cost your neighbours as well. How nice.  A man will believe almost anything if his income depends on it.   So do yourself, and every one else a favour and read up before you start giving your two cents worth.

Happy reading.

Cost comparison by fuel type.

Comparing all of the aspects of fuel type.

Return on investment.

Energy density and power density.

With less synchronous generation we need more infrastructure and management.

Electricity_Subsidies_The_Facts_March_2017 

Excerpt from above link:

State schemes

Now you will have earned the right to make an informed comment.

Also. For those that think the world is going to be destroyed by C02 induced Global Warming/Climate Change etc. you need to do some serious critical research into the lack of real evidence (and the evidence against it), and the misrepresentations of data to support those doomsayer prophecies. Start here, then here, and then maybe here.  If that is not enough, I also suggest here, and here.

Additional reading

The Shepherd Review

 

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$2 Billion wasted on ARENA

IMG_0585ARENA ( Australian Renewable Energy Agency) is a federal agency set up in 2011 to promote and fund renewable energy innovation and projects.

Two Billion Dollars of our hard earned money subsidising an already well subsidised (inefficient/unreliable) section of the energy sector through REC’s etc.

They started to appear in my FB feed in the last few weeks. Sponsored Advertisements it appears. So, not only are our tax dollars being wasted on renewable energy production that still need fossil fuelled back up generators to maintain supply, but we are also paying for the privilege of having it shoved in our faces weekly as well.

Not to mention those commenting who clearly have not done their homework regarding energy density and power density, production costs, distribution infrastructure, capacity factors, energy history, frequency regulation, synchronous generation, and the inequity in subsidies for fuel sources.  Then of course there are those who are either paid shrills or so blinded by their own narrow minded ideology they cannot logically reason for them selves. Only parroting the “save the world” green mantra and quoting anything and “everything” that appears to support their position, irrespective of the validity of the information. Ps most of the information comes from businesses or organisations that benefit from renewables.

One example of ARENA funding

For those people who are blinded by “green” rhetoric, or simply have just not done their homework, here are just a few links to help with your education.

Cost comparison by fuel type.

Comparing all of the aspects of fuel type.

Return on investment.

Energy density and power density.

With less synchronous generation we need more infrastructure and management.

Subsidies.

Happy reading.

Also. For those that think the world is going to be destroyed by C02 induced Global Warming/Climate Change etc. you need to do some serious critical research into the lack of real evidence, and the misrepresentations of data. Start here, then here, and then maybe here.  If that is not enough, I also suggest here, and here.

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electricity cost per year aus 2017“Expecting a different result from doing the same thing over and over is actually a form of insanity.”

Keep supporting political parties that continuously disrupt and damage our electricity sector by lying about the benefits, and they will keep doing the same thing. Their talk is cheap. The outcomes of their actions stand in direct conflict with what they promise.

The promise of cheaper electricity over the years was, and still is, a LIE.

This from South Australian  Labor’s 2014-2018 plan.

“Labor deregulated the energy market to increase competition and help to push down prices. As a result, people on a standing contract with AGL and Origin Energy have received an average $180 yearly reduction to their power prices.
Independent modelling has predicted that residential power prices in South Australia will fall during the next three years for households which have switched to a market offer. The Australian Market Energy Commission (AMEC)
analysis shows prices falling by an annual average of 0.9 per cent over three years.

South Australia is one of only two states that AMEC predicts will average a decline in electricity prices. Labor will continue to find ways to help people meet the cost of energy.”

I know my electricity bill has only ever gone up from 2004. (except when the kids left home. Halved the bill that year from less usage).

The Labor government’s  incompetence with regard to energy policy is astounding.  If we had never engaged in the installation of windmills in SA, we would not have the dearest electricity in the developed world. We would have had regular supply of electricity at a more reasonable price.

 

“The closure of the Northern Power Station, which followed the withdrawal of capacity at the Pelican. Point Power Station in 2015, has created a tighter supply-demand balance in South Australia. While there is sufficient firm capacity to meet peak demand during winter without reliance on the Heywood inter-connector, the inter-connector may need to be relied upon to meet peak demand during summer, should wind-powered generation be unavailable.”

Wind generation has made our electricity more expensive. Wind generation has made our electricity supply less reliable.

“The mix of generation plant in South Australia has also changed markedly in recent years. Wind powered generation has displaced coal-fired generation, making the state more reliant on gas-fired generation to meet base load demand. The wholesale cost of gas has increased significantly, making gas-fired generation more expensive. While wind-powered generation has, in itself, put downward pressure on spot prices, it has driven out less expensive forms of generation and contributed to more volatile spot price outcomes. Wind generation is not firm due to its intermittency and retailers therefore cannot obtain firm hedge products from it. This is contributing to the further reduction in availability of forward contracts, which has been an issue in South Australia since at least 2007-08.”

Wind generation has made the wholesale electricity market more volatile.

“The spot price of electricity in South Australia has increased significantly since the closure of Northern Power Station on 9 May 2016.”

Labor is now going to install diesel generators to supply our electricity over the peak summer demand. What happened to our “oh so green government”.  Can you actually believe this?

They even had the opportunity to delay some of these outcomes, by keeping the Northern operational for another 3 years. Whetherill chose not to.

Now we are going to have a solar plant at great cost and with no regular supply.  See JoNova Their pride, arrogance, and or incompetence is astounding.  Re-newables (along with privatisation) got us into this mess and they think that re-newables will get us out of it?

insanity einstien

Full report

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WUWT takes a look at SA’s energy madness.

$14,000 per MWh – the price South Australia Pays for Renewables Madness

Our situation will only change when enough South Aussies make enough noise about this. Make some noise people.

For some background info to our energy market, see  https://eyesonbrowne.wordpress.com/2014/02/17/time-to-make-electricity-cheaper/

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Increases per state of Australia

Increases per state of Australia

Electricity in Australia has been on the rise again this year.

My electricity bill this quarter also contained a pamphlet explaining the cost break up of our electricity bill.

It says; “Where every $100 on your electricity bill goes”

Network (poles and wires)                                                                                                    $51

Retail,  customer service and programs for energy efficiency and renewables                   $20

Wholesale electricity generation (making electricity)                                                          $20

Carbon price                                                                                                                         $ 9

Carbon Tax

My current electricity bill, which shows we used 1.412 MWh, totalled $507.36.   Therefore as per the pamphlet, the carbon tax should be about $45.66 ($9 per $100) or $36.87 if they mean before GST and service charges.   This calculates the carbon tax per MWh here in Adelaide at about $32.

My bill also states that we used 1.47 tonnes of green house gasses.  Now if we multiply that by the $23 per tonne (CT rate set by the Federal government), we should get the same number ($32).  We get close.  It actually calculates at $33.81 per Mwh.  Lets not worry too much about the slight discrepancy between the two figures, but keep theses numbers in mind.

Here is the graph of household electricity costs which is displayed on the cleanenergyfuture website.

Average cost increases according to the Federal Treasury

To get a clearer picture of the actual amounts I have duplicated the graph and included the amounts as close as my eye can tell.

Duplicated graph with actual amounts

Hmmm. Seems to be a large discrepancy here between the pamphlet and the info from cleanenergyfuture.

Is the CARBON TAX   $23 perMWh?       Or is it    $32 per MWh?

I’m confused.

I decided to check with my electricity supplier to get a more accurate account of how much carbon tax I am actually paying.    They should know, considering they have to pay the CT , so will have to factor it into each persons account.   Two weeks after emailing them a detailed request as to the actual tax I am paying, I received a letter asking me to ring them.

This was their reply:

“I am sorry I do not have access to that information. I will pass on your request to my supervisor and someone will contact you soon.”

That was on the 28th of November 2012.

No response by the 18th of December, so I sent another email.  This time a little more assertive, suggesting I am quite happy to move to another retailer if I do not get a reply within a reasonable amount of time. I gave them 1 week.

They replied rather promptly this time which was positive, however the content of the email was a little disappointing, and perhaps they should proof read their emails before sending. It does not make much grammatical sense.

It reads as follows;

Hello, thanks for your email.  Unfortunately we don’t have the exact figure for the carbon price increase as the rates were increased on 1st August 2012 however we don’t have a breakdown of what percentage was the Carbon Price increase and what percentage was the Annual price increase in South Australia.  We cannot break down the charges directly on the invoice.  Kind regards,

Hmmm, seems they are a little confused as well.  I am sure my simple brain could work out what the CT would be given the available information which they would surely have, so why is it so difficult for them to do?  I still think it is just lack of competence on their part to source the information.   If they cannot supply with the information in the new year I will start to get suspicious that something more is afoot.

My reply which I sent on the 22nd Dec 2012;

Thankyou for your prompt reply, though I still do not understand why this is so difficult a request. Your business I assume has to pay the CT to the Federal government of which I, like everyone else contributes to in their respective bills.  This I assume has to be calculated and not guessed, so I assume the calculation can be explained to me.
If by chance the increase for the CT is an arbitrary amount decided by your company, I would still like to know what that is.
If you cannot do this for me, can you tell me who can?
Regards
27/12/2012 – Still waiting.  This is becoming a saga.  I will update in 2013 when I have further info.
So I am still not entirely sure about how much carbon tax I am actually paying on my electricity bill.

 

JTF

Why wind power wont work

Wind Power. It just does not add up!  The continued installation of wind turbines in Australia is continuing despite the many financial and production failures in Europe and America.  Here in Australia there are currently 37+ wind farms in operation with many more either under construction or being planned for.  So what is the true cost of all this “free” electricity and will it replace all of our fossil fuelled electricity generation?  Lets have a good look at it then.

First, here is a quick run down on electricity usage in Australia.

In 2008-09 Australia’s power stations produced 266 billion kilowatt hours (TWh) of electricity*, 72% more than the 1990 level and growing at 3% pa. * 254 TWh public supply + 12 TWh for non-grid autoproducers.  Of this gross amount, about 17 TWh is used by the power stations themselves, leaving 249 TWh actually sent out (net production). Then about 18 TWh is lost or used in transmission and 11 more in energy sector consumption, leaving 220 TWh for final consumption (or 195 TWh apart from aluminium exports).* * Vencorp suggest that typically net TWh are about 10% less than gross TWh, with transmission and distribution losses often being 10%

Contribution from Australian wind farms in 2010 was  2.74 TWh or about 2.36% of available electricity (Aemo listed wind farms).  Federal and State governments are aiming to have 20% of our electricity generated by renewables by 2020. Most of this is to come from wind generation.

I would like to make a couple of points that may make clear some of the numbers bandied around especially in the press.

Name Plate Capacity = What the generator could produce in (continuing) ideal conditions.

Capacity Factor = The percentage of the average power output that is actually generated compared to the Name Plate Capacity

The Name Plate Capacity is what most Politicians, Environmentalists and media presenters usually use as it is a bigger number and sounds really  “awesome” and really powerful while being really green!  sarc.  So they present this theoretical number as being what is actually generated. It is a total misrepresentation of the truth and they know this, but obviously just do not care or are intentionally attempting to mislead.  Most wind farms in Australia generate about 30% of the Name Plate Capacity. Yes that is right only 30%!  So when they spruke, “Yes this wind farm will supply electricity to 9,000 homes”, the fact is they will supply electricity to about 3,000 homes, and it may not be all the time, but  I will get to reliability of supply a bit later.

Here is a good example of the cost of generating electricity from a wind farm.  Taken from Ramblingsdc.net

Estimated costs of generation for Brown Hill Range Wind Farm
Capital cost $233m
Annual cost of capital at 7.5% $17.5m
Annual cost of operations $6.75m
Total annual costs $24.2m
Annual generation 327 000 MWh
Cost of producing electricity $74/MWh
This figure is similar to estimates by Scientific American, listed on my Sustainabe energy page.
The cost of power is very dependent on the cost of capital.

So, how does this then compare to generating electricity by other means. As the graphic at the top of the post shows coal is still by far the cheapest form of power generation, as is so blatantly clear to many other countries especially China who are still building coal power stations.  Now the figures in the graph above may not be entirely up to date, so here is some more recent numbers.

Electricity generating costs in Australia

Or this:

Technology                           Cost (AUD/MWh)
Nuclear (to COTS plan)                40–70
Nuclear (to suit site; typical)       75–105
Coal                                  28–38
Coal: IGCC + CCS                      53–98
Coal: supercritical pulverized + CCS  64–106
Open-cycle Gas Turbine                101
Hot fractured rocks                    89
Gas: combined cycle                   37–54
Gas: combined cycle + CCS             53–93
Small Hydro power                     55
Wind power: high capacity factor      63
Solar thermal                         85
Biomass                               88
Photovoltaics                        120
Source: Graham, P. The heat is on: the future of energy in Australia CSIRO, 2006

It does not really matter how you compare, or when you compare, wind power generation will never be as cheap as coal, or nuclear for that matter.  The numbers just do not lie. A fair bit of this information comes from a pro green energy site, so there is no fudging of the numbers. Ps. The A$63 quoted in the last table is for high capacity generation. In reality it would be closer to A$100.

Question.  Who do you think will pay for the increased cost of producing all of this “green” electricity?   Hmmmm.  Those polluters I hear you say.  Yep, all of those polluters are going to dip into their wallets and not make any profit from their businesses.  I dont think so. It will be you and me. All of us mugs who are not blessed with being, or cunning and ruthless enough to become part of the elite in this world.

There are two ways we end up paying this extra cost of power generation.  Through our taxes when state and federal governments give grants to “green” energy projects, and through higher electricity prices.  Our government sets energy policy to require energy producers to source minimum amounts from “green” generation, and they also negotiate the setting of the wholesale prices to ensure these companies can stay viable.  These prices are always more expensive to cover the increased cost of generation by wind power etc.

Here is an example of the amount of subsidy that our governments supply to energy producers:(per http://www.greenpeace.org/raw/content/australia/resources/reports/climate-change/energy-and-transport-subsidies.pdf):

  • Oil 76% at A$7.4 billion
  • Coal 17% at A$1.7 billion
  • Gas 4% at A$377 million
  • Renewables 3% at $326 million
Looks like  Renewables gets the short end of the stick from these figures, however when you compare per amount of  electricity generated, it is a completely different story.
                                                                      % of total generation     Mil$ per Gwh
  • Oil 76% at A$7.4 billion                               2%                         $5481 *Note this is about roads.
  • Coal 17% at A$1.7 billion                 54%                    $     56
  • Gas 4% at A$377 million                             26%                         $    26
  • Renewables 3% at $326 million       4.5%                     $ 130
So as it turns out, coal subsidies are less than half of the subsidies that are paid to renewables per Giga Watt hour.  So for every extra gigawatt of energy generated from renewables, we will end up paying an extra  $74 Mil per Gigawatt.   If we achieve the 20% target based on these numbers the subsidies will top $1.45 Billion per year, and that is for only 20% of the generated electricity. Imagine Greenpeace’s dream of 100% generated by renewables.  That would cost us in subsidies the cool amount of $7.265 Billion for the year in subsidies!  Now I just need to put this into perspective.  That is about $31,000 per person in Australia.  So, how affordable and sustainable do you think using that would be huh?
RELIABILITY

 I will just say this about the reliability of wind power.  The wind does’nt always blow and when it does, it does not always blow at the time it is needed.  The graph shows the total generated electricity from wind (blue line) does not even come close to matching the variable demand (red line). The enormous variations in actual demand could never be matched by intermittent expensive wind power. To see a more graphic representation click here.

The other reliability problem is when the wind is too weak or too strong. Wind turbines are quite dangerous when the wind blows stronger than it is rated for, and will not generate any electricity when too weak.  Eg. if the wind goes above 80kms most turbines will shut down or “tether” so as to not damage the turbine.

The very foundation of our modern way of living is based on inexpensive power generation.  Dependency on ‘renewable’ energy is a great concept if you live in the middle of nowhere, or have no comprehension of economics, or have an exceptionally well-insulated home and work in an academic/clerical/bureaucratic, low energy, environment.

Wind power generation is neither affordable or reliable. Question it and oppose all wind generating propositions. They are all economically and practically flawed. They produce minimal amounts of electricity (for the cost) and mostly not when it is needed.  They will never replace any base load power stations, EVER.

THIS IS WHY WIND POWER WILL NOT WORK.

More information available:

Wind Power Facts

WUWT failed wind turbines

The problem with wind(AWEO)

Oz Nuclear forum