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Casting shadows in the sky.

Bizarre cloud over Perth November 2017.

Saw this on a recent trip to Perth (Australia). We had just arrived back to our accommodation when we noticed this bizarre cloud formation.  To me it looks like a shadow on the cloud, but a shadow being cast up?????  Comments about this are most welcome.

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Close up:

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One of the Bunyeroo Creek tributaries

Trezona is a message in a bottle from our very distant past. The rocks containing fossils from 600 million years ago are our companions during our walk back in time for our Heysen walk today.

Our start was a little earlier today to attempt to miss the heat of the day. We needn’t have worried though, as most of the walk today was fairly easy with a good trail on a mildly undulating terrain.

Not quite so many Kangaroo’s this morning, although there were bountiful rabbits. We saw lucky rabbits. We saw smart rabbits.   Then we saw the two rabbits that were neither lucky nor smart. But they did appear to be very attracted to my car though.

Now, with Grant’s car still in Hawker, we had to be a little creative with our logistics today with only one vehicle. Oh that’s right, I haven’t shared that story yet, have I.

On the previous day:

We had been scouting out Aroona Hut this afternoon and found ourselves chatting to some Queenslander’s who had been travelling aimlessly around the country.  Ending up in SA at Aroona Hut just at that moment we were there.  Go figure!  Reminds me of that old  saying. Where ever you go, there you are.  Anyway, we headed off to Wilpena for a coffee, but having the two cars this particular day, we decided to leave my car at the Brachina turn off to be picked up later. On arriving at Wilpena in Grant’s car however, there was concern over one of his car’s tyres.  His “smart” car was telling him that one of the tyres was a little flat, and on inspection we could hear a very disappointing hiss coming from the rear left. Oh dear! With no repair facilities at Wilpena Pound, a trip to Hawker was now required.              Back in the car we went for the extra 50 km trip down to Hawker.

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The start of Grant’s walk in Bunyeroo Creek

The lovely people at Hawker Motors inspected said problem tyre while we went for a coffee, and on returning were told it was not fixable and a replacement tyre would take two days to get in! Oh dear again!

Now in Hawker with no car. With my car nearly a hundred K’s away in the middle of nowhere, and our cabin even further away, we had to do some quick thinking.  While Grant sorted out the details for the car I headed over to the Servo to see if I could hitch a ride north, and as it happened just at that moment, a work team were about to head north to repair a gas turbine. And, they had a bit of room to spare, but only for one.  Awesome! So I left Grant to stew over his misfortune while I climbed aboard and we headed off.

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Nearly the top of the hill

Nice company these fellows, and I was very grateful for the lift. We chatted about the Flinder’s, our respective homes, and serial killers (SA has had a fair few). Just what you do while travelling in the outback in Australia with total strangers! They were joking about whether my car would still be there, or be on blocks. I just shrugged it off and said, “ Not many thieves out here to worry about, just those Wolf Creek type serial killers!!! 

So, on reaching my shiny blue Camry, I thanked my new found buddies, and hit the road again heading back to Hawker.  For a moment I did consider leaving Grant in Hawker and heading back to the cabin, but then I remembered I had left my wallet in his car. Damn! Back down the road to Hawker again, picking up Grant before returning to Angorichina. Clocked up quite a few K’s this day.

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“V” shaped creek bed. Bunyeroo

Ending a long day of driving, we dined on some spicy spaghetti bolognese.  A tasty Mount Jaggard sparkling Shiraz was the perfect accompaniment as we sat at our outside dining table, watching the evening’s orange glow slowly recede into the darkening Heysen Range.  The sharply defined silhouettes sitting atop the western ridge, persisting with their shadow puppetry until well after the bottle of wine was finished. 

Needless to say, after all of the events that has happened today, we slept very well.

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Great views this morning

So, back to today’s walk.  With only one car now we had to vary our traditional method of drop off etc.  Our plan now is for each of us to walk opposite ways on this track with me walking from Trezona, and Grant walking from Check point B7.  Meeting some where on the trail in the middle to hand over the car keys.

Grant dropped me off at Trezona, and drove onto Bunyeroo Valley heading to Check Point B7.  I would walk south to Check Point B7 while Grant would walk north to Trezona.  Remembering to hand over the car keys when we passed by on the trail, so I could drive the car back to pick up Grant afterwards. Very efficient of us really.

IMG_9382While Grant was still driving to his start point in Bunyeroo, I started off from Trezona in the dim light.  Wandering alone on the well worn path in the cool pre-dawn air,  the morning rays of light peeping over the hill caressing my skin with a suggestion of the day’s heat to come.  The sweet scent from the wattles wafted carelessly across my path, while the native bees hummed as they attended to their business, delighting in the yellow bonanza on display for as far as the eye could see.  The easy terrain on most of this walk was over all too quickly.

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Good Morning Trezona

The hills and creek walk were a little more challenging, especially for Grant who was walking from south to north. Great views of Wilpena Pound and surrounds again today.

The creeks were interesting, particularly the “V” shaped one. Straddling the creek with one foot either side was interesting. Stretched out the inner thighs quite well.

Such an early start and an easy walk today. It was even too early for us to have our mandatory cold beer at the the end!!

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Easy walking this morning

The rest of day we checked out Parachilna Gorge and the Northern Heysen trail head, as well as the Prairie hotel for dinner arrangements for later in the week.

It was now getting late, and with the shadows now stretching further across the land, and the Roo’s awakening from their slumber to once again play Kangaroo pinball, we headed back to our cabin. Our strike rate today…. two rabbits and one Kangaroo. Just a little stressful driving during the change of light, though it does get the adrenaline pumping. We headed back to our cabin for a BBQ, another sparkling red, and some music for the soul. Hard to take really. A nice Red. A red sunset. BBQ and the Blues. All while nestled in the magnificent Flinders Ranges.

In Short:

Check Point B7 Wilcolo Circiut to Trezona

Distance: 15 kms

Speed : 5.2 kph.

Terrain: Creek walking and then a bloody great big hill on a rocky track. The rest is open flat woodland. Good wide track.

Elevation: First 3kms in the creek with a 150 mtr ascent in less than a kilometre. The rest is not worth mentioning. Maybe 20 metre decline over the whole rest of the track.

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The gate heading into Check Point B7. Bunyeroo

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Heading off from Trezona (south)

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Easy walking from here (heading north)

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Morning my feathered friends.

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A view of where we will be walking. From way off to the left to the bottom of the hill where this road goes

After a year in the wilderness of the city, work, house, responsibilities, family and kids, I finally find a few days spare to return to the place of my heart.  Mile by mile heading north, the cars, buildings, and people become fewer and fewer, as does all of the “stuff” in my head.  Some have suggested that there is not much in there most of the time anyway.

A quick stop at Lochiel to say hello to the ladies at Jitter Bean for a delicious lunch, then on to Hawker for a final fuel stop before heading off towards Blinman, and Angorichina.

The next four days will be our final leg of the Heysen Trail from South to North. Walking from Wilpena Pound through to Parachilna Gorge through some pristine Flinders Ranges wilderness.

Day One: Wilpena Pound to Bunyeroo

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Some of our welcoming committee.

First. Compliments to the Adnyarmathanha people for looking after this wonderful land.

Cool morning so far today, even an hour after sunrise when we started the trek.  The wind was blowing quite firm and was pretty cool. The first 1.5 kms around the Wilpena Caravan Park seemed a bit of a chore, so we walked it the previous day when we were scouting out for today’s walk.  Seemed logical and easy to do, and reduced the following days trek just a little.

A nice easy track greeted us this morning with a committee of Grey and Red kangaroos cheering us on. A solitary Emu watching over the proceedings.  We were soon on the ascent up hill albeit quite slight. A rise of about 70 metres over a few kilometres.

IMG_9524With mist cascading over one of the Wilpena peaks, the early morning sun bathed the ridge in a warming glow.  All while we strode on through open grassland in the chilled morning air. The cypress pine’s slowly grew before us, filling our view.  We were soon immersed into this native forest which would be our friend for many a kilometre.

The views of this side of the Pound were pretty damn good. St Mary’s Peak and her companions towered above us for most of our journey today. With some of the trail a little uneven and rocky we had to remember to occasionally stop and look up at the magnificent views.  I nearly did an ankle admiring the view, at least twice. Good hiking boots always save me though.

IMG_9536The first part of the walk peaked at about 57 metres, before we started a long slow descent, albeit a bit up and down.  A very easy walk amongst the pine trees, and the path of red Wilcolo sandstone was at times just like a manicured city park path.

Leaving the Wilpena Pound area we continued on with the pine trees and the red path.

The nice wide track could easily lull you into missing the major right turn on the Heysen Trail.

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“It’s this way”. Yes yes Grant, I can see that.

The other track (straight on) is the Mawson Trail(for cyclists). This would be easy to miss if chatting at the time of passing it. Would never happen would it?

Our right turn took us through the creek and then up the hill, but just before the start of the hill, there was a great little camping spot. Very nice. Clearly some had taken the time to camp there to take in the atmosphere. We were now in the Wilcolo Circuit which will take us up this dirty great big hill and then down again eventually to the circuit check point B7.

IMG_9569We followed the creek for a way before heading up the substantial hill.  The moderate climb on a narrow trail got the blood pumping and cresting the hill we rejoiced in reaching the top.  Looking into this new valley, we stood and pondered. Somewhere down there was our finishing point for the day.

Bunyeroo Valley opened up before us with wonderful views.  We knew roughly where our exit point should be from our elevated vantage point, however the trees obscured our view until we descended into the very bottom of the valley.

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Check Point B7.

Check point B7 revealed itself right next to that big gum tree.   This is where we had to exit the Heysen Trail for the day. We followed the creek down stream on a rough track going west until we found the Bunyeroo Valley road. The end of today’s walk.

We drove up to one of the look outs on the ridge, before cracking a cold beer to celebrate and refresh.  Knowing that there is a cold beer in the car is always a motivating factor when struggling in the last few kms. It always works.

 

In Brief:

Wilpena Pound to Check Point B7 Wilcolo Circiut

Distance: 20 kms

Pace: 5.5kms

Terrain: Forrest walk on a good track. A narrow track up the big hill. A little bit of creek walking also.

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Wilpena to Bunyeroo

Wilpena (at bottom) to Bunyeroo Valley (Top “E”)

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Check Point B4 at the top of the hill

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On our way down to Check Point B7

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Global Warming Scare is Over

Is this the mathematical proof that the Global Warming Scare is falsified?

 

Monkton's climate mathMonkton math ipcc

 

The math used to project the potential warming of the atmosphere by the IPCC is WRONG.  The warming at worst will be mild and beneficial.

2.25° increase for a doubling of CO2 will keep our climate in a nice “Goldilocks” temperature range.

Can we now please get back to worrying about real problems instead of fake ones?  And, stop wasting billions of $$ on a non problem.

 

 

 

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Kiribati. Still not sinking

climate refugees Kiribati

50% faster than it was????   Apparently not.

Update to the sea level “catastrophe”  in Kiribati.

Kiribati sea level 1949 to june2017

The trend is reducing year by year.  There has been essentially no sea level rise since 2001. 16+ years with no increase in sea level in Kiribati.

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electricity cost per year aus 2017“Expecting a different result from doing the same thing over and over is actually a form of insanity.”

Keep supporting political parties that continuously disrupt and damage our electricity sector by lying about the benefits, and they will keep doing the same thing. Their talk is cheap. The outcomes of their actions stand in direct conflict with what they promise.

The promise of cheaper electricity over the years was, and still is, a LIE.

This from South Australian  Labor’s 2014-2018 plan.

“Labor deregulated the energy market to increase competition and help to push down prices. As a result, people on a standing contract with AGL and Origin Energy have received an average $180 yearly reduction to their power prices.
Independent modelling has predicted that residential power prices in South Australia will fall during the next three years for households which have switched to a market offer. The Australian Market Energy Commission (AMEC)
analysis shows prices falling by an annual average of 0.9 per cent over three years.

South Australia is one of only two states that AMEC predicts will average a decline in electricity prices. Labor will continue to find ways to help people meet the cost of energy.”

I know my electricity bill has only ever gone up from 2004. (except when the kids left home. Halved the bill that year from less usage).

The Labor government’s  incompetence with regard to energy policy is astounding.  If we had never engaged in the installation of windmills in SA, we would not have the dearest electricity in the developed world. We would have had regular supply of electricity at a more reasonable price.

 

“The closure of the Northern Power Station, which followed the withdrawal of capacity at the Pelican. Point Power Station in 2015, has created a tighter supply-demand balance in South Australia. While there is sufficient firm capacity to meet peak demand during winter without reliance on the Heywood inter-connector, the inter-connector may need to be relied upon to meet peak demand during summer, should wind-powered generation be unavailable.”

Wind generation has made our electricity more expensive. Wind generation has made our electricity supply less reliable.

“The mix of generation plant in South Australia has also changed markedly in recent years. Wind powered generation has displaced coal-fired generation, making the state more reliant on gas-fired generation to meet base load demand. The wholesale cost of gas has increased significantly, making gas-fired generation more expensive. While wind-powered generation has, in itself, put downward pressure on spot prices, it has driven out less expensive forms of generation and contributed to more volatile spot price outcomes. Wind generation is not firm due to its intermittency and retailers therefore cannot obtain firm hedge products from it. This is contributing to the further reduction in availability of forward contracts, which has been an issue in South Australia since at least 2007-08.”

Wind generation has made the wholesale electricity market more volatile.

“The spot price of electricity in South Australia has increased significantly since the closure of Northern Power Station on 9 May 2016.”

Labor is now going to install diesel generators to supply our electricity over the peak summer demand. What happened to our “oh so green government”.  Can you actually believe this?

They even had the opportunity to delay some of these outcomes, by keeping the Northern operational for another 3 years. Whetherill chose not to.

Now we are going to have a solar plant at great cost and with no regular supply.  See JoNova Their pride, arrogance, and or incompetence is astounding.  Re-newables (along with privatisation) got us into this mess and they think that re-newables will get us out of it?

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Full report

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Why Me.

You are exactly where

Climate Facts, Denied?

believer bernard shawWas talking to a friend the other day, and she asked whether I believed in Climate Change. I responded with, “science is not about belief, but about facts”. Then she used the “Denier” term in respect to Climate Change facts. I promised to share some facts with her.

Here ya go Amy.

Fact 1

It is not actually possible to measure the earths temperature. Let alone compare current temperatures to past temperatures to get accurate global trends.  There is insufficient weather stations in some key locations, like Africa, the Arctic, the Antarctic, and oh yes, the oceans. The oceans are kinda catered for but the rest are typically “infilled” with data (guestimated?).  There has also been changes to the number of, and the locations of measuring stations as well as varying methods of recording.  Probably the best method we have to measure the earth’s temperature are the satellites. But these only cover the last 37 years, and have a few minor issues of there own.

Fact 2

Temperature data may not be what you think it is. Station siting in once rural areas and now in growing urban areas are affected by UHI. Homogenised data sets can be quite different from the raw data, creating different trends than were originally indicated.

Records in the US and Australia have had their past temperatures predominantly reduced, producing long term warming trends where there was little or none in the original records. I have seen direct evidence of this in the Adelaide record, and in NOAA data.

Fact 3

 

Every prediction/projection from Climate Scientists and promoters of CAGW has not been realised. The Arctic has not melted away. The Polar bears are increasing in population. The temperature has not risen as stated by the IPCC. The seas have not risen catastrophically. Storms have not gotten worse. There are no climate refugees.  Australia and Texas are no longer in “permanent drought”. Crop yields have increased around the world. The Antarctic has been growing in ice. Standard of living has increased in the vast majority of countries.  Children still know what snow is.

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Fact 4

Sea levels around the world vary in their rates of rise (or fall). Long term gauges average 1.5mm rise per year. Global sea levels starting rising 200 to 300 years ago, with yearly trends of 1.35mm and less than 1mm (dependant on which study).  The satellite record for sea level indicates about 3mm per year since 1993.  There is a disconnect between gauges and satellite results. Satellite data indicates a rate much higher than the average of tide gauges. All stated rates are far below what the IPCC has forecast.

Fact 5

Storms are not increasing in number or severity. No increase trend in accumulated cyclone energy.  There has been a decrease in overall cyclones. The number of US tornadoes are not increasing.  Cat 3 and above tornadoes have a decreasing trend.

Fact 6

Arctic ice has been reducing in area since 1979, however the satellite record prior to 1979 is never published on line by NASA, and shows ice area peaked in 1979 and had been much less in the years before. Not too dissimilar to the current levels.

Fact 7

Antarctic ice and Greenland snow and ice have been increasing over the satellite record.

Fact 8

The ice cores show that CO2 predominantly increases after the temperature. Mostly after 800 years. The science of ice core analysis is problematic and the CO2 concentrations in the ice core may not be representative of CO2 in the atmosphere, over the noted history.

cock sure stupid

Fact 9

The current CO2 data from Mauna Loa has been tacked onto CO2 data from the ice cores producing one long record, however, as stated above the ice core gasses may not be directly comparable to real world measurements. There is also a historical gap of 83 years which was erased to connect the two data sets, to form one continuous record. The Keeling curve.

Fact 10

Climate models predicted a “hot spot” in the atmosphere due to CO2 warming. This hot spot has never been observed.

Fact 11.

It is not possible to directly attribute any weather event or warming episode over short or long periods solely or even partially to CO2.  There are too many variables influencing weather and climate to make clear connections.

 

Fact 12.

The projected temperature rise per the IPCC model mean, is currently much higher and diverging from both satellite records.

Fact 13.

The reported rise in global temperature from NOAA since 1880 is about 0.8°C.  That is all.

Fact 14.

The reported rise in temperature from NOAA/NCDC from 1960 to 2017(blamed on AGW)  is within 0.1°C of being the same as the temperature rise from 1910 to 1941(apparently natural causes)

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Fact 15.

The yearly error bars on the NOAA/NCDC global temperature data set prior to 1952 is 0.4°C. Half of the reported total rise.

Fact 16.

The survey purporting to the 97% consensus has been found to be flawed statistically, and in methodology.

Fact 17.

The earth is getting greener.

Fact 18.

Cold kills far more people than heat.

Fact 19.

The IPCC is a UN body chartered with the task of gathering evidence to support the theory of AGW, and to recommend policy to governing bodies around the world. It is not chartered to gather any evidence that does not support the theory of AGW.

Fact 20.

CO2 is not listed as a pollutant on the Australian or US government pollutants list. It is however, plant food.

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In closing.

This list of facts that bring into question the authenticity of the CAGW theory is by no means complete.  There is much more.  And more in this video.

But given just this information above, it is difficult to imagine that the science of AGW, CAGW, Climate Change, or Climate Disruption, is so settled.  Science by definition is never “settled”, and it is never agreed on by “consensus”. Even if CO2 does have a net warming effect on the earth, it appears that it is not as much as stated by the IPCC, and it appears not to be catastrophic.  Any additional warmth appears to have had far more benefits than any of the projected negatives.

There also appears to be some heavy bias in the “climate” community towards the AGW theory.  Ommition, mirepresentation, and alteration of information and data which would bring into question the AGW theory is common.  Funding and research is popular for any AGW supported area, while any other climate research not supporting AGW is either not funded, or obfuscated, or outright rejected in peer review.

So

Should I believe in Climate Change?

If I did, I might be denying much more than just a scientific theory.

Facts are pesky little buggers, arn’t they.

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Goolwa 2012 Matt2Not only are South Australians to put up with the lights going our regularly, but when the lights are on, we are to pay through the nose for it.

Businesses and Industries are shutting down or moving out because costs are too high making them unprofitable. Energy debt is on the rise, and is a contributing factor in homelessness, either from loss of employment and or inability to pay energy bills.

How is South Australia supposed to be be economically viable with energy costs like this?

electricity costs aus 2017

The private ownership of our electricity operations and the “green dream” of inefficient and unreliable wind mills and solar panels is destroying our industries. Erasing our jobs, and eroding our standard of living. Won’t be long before we are living in the new “Dark Ages”.

Here’s an idea.  Why not match our energy production methods with the two biggest industrial countries in the world.

China energy IER

China energy mix AEM

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Both nations use more coal, gas and nuclear.   The contribution of wind to their grids is less than 10%, while ours is over 30%.

Why not ask your local MP why we have to pay so much for our electricity, contributing to our businesses and industries shutting down.

If you don’t want to be like my friend above living in the dark ages, then maybe you should ask your state MP what they plan to do about it.

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I love crisesRemember when SA had a water crisis? The drought was never going to end. Global Warming had dried up all of the water. The dams were nearly empty. Even the mighty Murray river was looking a little worse for wear. Supposed learned people like Tim Flannery were sprouting “gloom and doom” re our water resources.  “never going to rain again” I think he said.

Water restrictions were put in place, but that was never going to be enough for such a “serious and permanent crisis”.  That’s what we were told.

A desalination plant was the only answer for “water security”.  WA had one. Queensland and NSW were building them, and Victoria was about to start one as well. (the Taswegians were too busy playing with their hydro power to worry about such things. Our leaders love a crisis to “fix”. So in grand style they decided to spend all of our money to fix it.  Not to worry about the fact that droughts have always happened, and they also happen to always end too.  So how much did all this cost? Not that much.

So, how much drought is there in SA, or Australia for that matter?

Here is the state of drought in Australia for the 12 months ending March 2017.

Drought Australia 12 mths to March2017

The last 12 months has seen the end of drought in the entire continent of Australia. So much for those “never going to rain again” predictions. Tim Flannery has a lot to answer for. Should send him the bill for the current ongoing cost of the Desal plant.

Now, apparently we have another crisis in SA in which we need,

                                      “Energy Security” .

I kid you not. This time however our leaders have created the crisis themselves, by subsidising unreliable solar and wind, and at the same time helping to make reliable (and cheap) energy production less viable.

Would you trust this government to fix a problem they created?

Would you trust this government to fix the energy crisis in a similar way to the water crisis?

Because effectively, this is exactly what they are proposing to do. Implementing a fix based on green propaganda, unproven technology and unproven scientific theory.

$550 million is the initial cost for another power station and a “big battery”. The cost of which will no doubt be passed on to us via electricity price hikes or taxes, or even council rates.  Guess who will also pay for the ongoing costs too! Soon we will all be in financial crisis!

Here is just one more example of the ludicrous nature of the system we have been given. Just the other day our wonderful wind turbines were producing so much “free” electricity, that Aemo instructed one of the gas fired generators to stay on line for “grid stability”.  So we get cheap electricity from the wind mills, but still have to pay for the gas fired generator!!!!! What is the point of having the wind mills if we still have to run the other generators??????  Tom Koutsantonis must have been proud that he helped avoid another crisis”!

Call or write your SA representative now to voice your opposition to this pointless and expensive initiative. Help save SA from energy poverty. We need an economically viable and pragmatic fix to our energy needs. Not another “green fantasy” crisis fix.

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